The US Grocery Slowdown Is Real

The US grocery slowdown has entered a new phase. Our analysis of NielsenIQ grocery data shows a trend in negative unit growth starting in mid-2025, masked by steady price increases. But since February 2026, units have stepped down sharply enough to pull sales lower across the US. Prices are still climbing 2% to 3% year over year, roughly in line with food-at-home inflation, while units are down about 2% year over year in most months since February.

Pricing growth and inflation can no longer hide that shoppers are buying fewer items.